注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

杭州临江仙

 
 
 

日志

 
 

虽然你对市场的判断100%正确——但你并没有赚到足够的钱。为什么?——斯坦利?克罗  

2011-02-24 14:11:43|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

Studying my winning plays in Fullerton’s office I discovered that although I often was 100 percent right on the market - I was not making as much money as my market “rightness” entitled me to. Why wasn’t I?

我在富尔顿办公室分析我赢利的交易,我发现虽然我对市场的判断100%正确——但我并没有赚到足够的钱。为什么?

First of all, I had been bullish from the very start of a bull market, and I had backed my opinion by buying stocks. An advance followed, as I had clearly foreseen. So far, all very well. But, what else did I do? Why, I listened to the elder statesmen, and curbed my youthful impetuousness. I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knows that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do; for I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came. And I saw my stock go kiting up ten points more and I sitting there with my four-point profit safe in my conservative pocket. They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But, neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.

首先,在上涨的一开始我就看涨,我买入股票以支持我的观点。我能清楚地看到还会继续上涨。到目前为止,我做的很好。但是,我还做了什么事?我听了那个老发言人的话,我控制了自己的浮躁。我决定要认真,要聪明,要保守。每个人都知道先兑现利润,然后在回调时买入。我也是这么做的,我经常兑现利润,然后等回调,结果股票直接涨上去了。我保守地赚到了4个点的利润,眼睁睁地看着股票又涨了10个点。他们说只要有利润,你就不会变穷。对,你不会变穷。但是,在牛市只赚4个点也不会让你变富。

Where I should have made twenty thousand dollars, I made two thousand. That was what my conservatism did for me.

本来我可以赚到2万美元,结果我的保守思想只让我赚了2千美元。

And here’s one of my favorite quotations. I keep this one, typed on a small card, in my top desk drawer:

以下我最喜欢的句子。我把它打印在小卡片上,放在桌子上:

. . . After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars, I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight. It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and lots of early bears in bear markets. I have known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine; that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.

……在华尔街度过了很多年,赚了几百万,又亏了几百万以后,我想告诉你:我的想法永远不会让我赚钱。我的坐法总是让我赚钱。你明白了吗?就是紧紧地坐着。判断对了根本不是什么技术。很多人在上涨前就看涨了,很多人在下跌前就看跌了。我知道很多人在正确的时机开始买卖股票,应该会有巨大的利润。结果他们的经历和我一样,他们没赚到钱。判断正确并能紧坐的人是了不起的。我发现要做到这点太难了。一个股票交易者只有掌握了这点才能赚大钱。如果一个交易者不明白这点,他赚几百美元都很困难;一旦他明白了这点,赚几百万都会很轻松。

I must have bought and given away 40 or 50 copies of this book, starting in 1961. Who got the first copy? I remember that clearly. I gave the first copy to Paul, one of my earliest and most memorable commodity clients.

1961年开始,我差不多买了4050本并赠送给别人。谁得到了第一本?我记的很清楚。我把第一本给了保罗,他是我最早的客户,也是最值得想念的客户。

It was Paul’s first commodity trade, and he bought 10,000 bushels (two contracts) of May soybeans at 2.25 in November 1960. By the time May beans hit 3.35 in April of the following year, he had pyramided his original $5,000 and two contracts into some $80,000 and 45 contracts. What a bonanza, especially for a first-time commodity trader! But as the market kept advancing, Paul got progressively more bullish. His original price objective was 2.85, then 3.20, and by the time it got to 3.35 he was talking about 4.00 beans.

196011月保罗第一次交易商品,他用2.25的价格买了10000蒲式耳5月份大豆。到了第二年4月,大豆的价格到了3.35,他已经把最初的5000美元和2份合约增值到了80000美元和45份合约。对于第一次做期货的交易者来说,这是多么幸运呀。但是当市场继续前进时,保罗过分看涨。他最初的价格目标是2.85,然后是3.20,当价格到了3.35时,他的目标又变成了4.00

His equity topped out at $80,000. Just a few days (and a $30,000 decrease in equity) later, I tried to persuade Paul to close out. “You’ve got $50,000 left - more than you ever imagined it would be. Close out now, and take a trip around the world,” I told him. But Paul was smarting from the last market drop; he would make that $30,000 back and then close out.

他的资金最多时是80000美元。几天后(资金缩水30000美元),我劝说保罗平仓。我告诉他:“你赚了50000美元——比你当初想象的还要多。赶快平仓吧,然后去环游世界。”但是保罗在下跌以后变聪明了,他要把30000美元赚回来,然后再平仓。

The story has a familiar ending - it happens all the time. Paul’s remaining $50,000 rapidly disappeared, leaving him with little more than carfare back to the Bronx (some “ride”) and the copy of Reminiscences I had given him (he should have read it). As a matter of fact, when he tallied up his misadventure, he found that he had suffered a net loss of $7,000, or $2,000 more than his original investment.

故事的结局都很相似——总是这样。保罗剩下来的50000美元很快就消失了,剩下来的钱只够他坐车回布朗克丝(有一段路),他还有一本我送给他的《股票作手回忆录》(他早点看就好了)。事实上,当他总结他的不幸遭遇时,他发现他净亏7000美元,比最初投入的5000美元还要多亏2000美元。

                      ———————————————斯坦利·克罗《专业商品交易者》

  评论这张
 
阅读(653)| 评论(0)
推荐

历史上的今天

在LOFTER的更多文章

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017